Gun violence remains one of the most pressing challenges in America, but a recently-released analysis of Chicago crime trends in 2024 shows there are signs of progress. This year in Chicago, murders and non-fatal shootings continued to decline from their recent peak in 2020 and 2021. Despite these encouraging trends, the analysis also found Chicago continues to grapple with inequities tied to race and geography, as well as increased violent crime on aggregate.
According to the analysis, homicides decreased by 7.3% since this time last year, and non-fatal shootings decreased by 3.7%, remaining slightly above pre-pandemic figures. Persistent challenging patterns remain, however: Black residents remain disproportionately impacted by gun violence, being 22 times more likely to be killed compared to white residents. The disparity is even greater when considering geography: neighborhoods with the highest homicide rates experience approximately 68 times more homicides than those with the lowest rates. While violent crime is down from last year, it is still higher than the 5-year average. The primary contributors to this upward trend are aggravated assaults, aggravated batteries, and robberies (excluding carjackings).
And there is more work to do: shootings in Chicago are becoming more deadly. Since 2010:
- Shooting lethality—the rate at which shooting victims die from being shot—increased by 44.9%.
- The number of high-capacity magazines recovered at shootings by the Chicago Police Department increased by over 480%.
- The average number of shell casings recovered per shooting victim has more than doubled.
"As a Chicagoan and researcher, I’m encouraged by the declines in homicides and shootings, but the persistent racial and geographic inequities in safety are deeply troubling, as is the increasing lethality of gun violence. I remain hopeful that, with data-driven insights, we can make meaningful progress in reducing violence and making shootings less deadly," Crime Lab Analytics Manager Javier Lopez said.
"Gun violence not only irrevocably changes the lives of those directly impacted, it also disrupts the fabric of our communities," Katie Hill, Executive Director of the Crime Lab, said. "While our year-end analysis shows a hopeful decline in homicides and shootings, it also demonstrates that the lethality of gun violence incidents continues to rise—making the challenge of reducing gun violence more urgent than ever. The data also highlights enduring disparities in gun violence’s impact, especially on Black communities. Equipped with these insights, we are committed to continuing to advance evidence-based policies and interventions that enhance public safety for all. It’s not just about reducing numbers; it’s about achieving equity, safety, and justice for all who call our city home."
Read the full analysis from the Crime Lab here.